People who work in specialized fields seem to have their own language. Practitioners develop a shorthand to communicate among themselves. The jargon can almost sound like a foreign language.
A hedge fund manager whose clients demand monthly performance reports has different needs than any individual investors with a 20-year time horizon. The needs of that long-term investor differ markedly from someone who is retiring in three years.
You can blow on the dice all you want, but whether they come up 'seven' is still a function of random luck.
History shows us that people are terrible about guessing what is going to happen - next week, next month, and especially next year.
Content is king. When you are asking people to read you several times a day, you better have some fine content.
If I am going to trash others for their dumb predictions, I must at least hold myself to the same sort of accountability.
Little white lies are told by humans all the time. Indeed, lying is often how we get through each day in a happy little bubble. We spend time and energy rationalizing our own behaviors, beliefs and decision-making processes.
Forecasting is simply not a strength of the species; we are much better with tools and narrative storytelling.
The good news is that economists are intelligent, engaging and often charming folks. The bad news is their work is often of little use to investors.